Tuesday, October 28, 2008

From Alter Net

At this point, is an Obama victory a cinch? Maybe not. Consider this New York Times reporting published on Oct. 24: "Pollsters say there has never been a year when polling has been so problematic, given the uncertainty of who is going to vote in what is shaping up as an electorate larger than ever. While most national polls give Mr. Obama a relatively comfortable lead, in many statewide polls, Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are much more closely matched. Even a small shift in the national number could deliver some of the closer states into the McCain camp, making an Electoral College victory at least possible."

In fact, it's possible that Obama could win a clear victory in the popular vote while McCain manages to claim enough electoral votes to move into the White House. Crucial to such an outcome would be Missouri (which, as the Times notes, "has been a bellwether in every White House race during the last century except 1956"). Is taking that risk worth the satisfaction of getting a couple percent of the vote for Ralph Nader for president in 2008?

On the two health care plans, Bob Herbert quotes the Tax Policy Center that says:

Mr. Obama’s plan is the better one because it would cover far more of the uninsured, spread risks and costs more equitably and result in more comprehensive coverage for most Americans. We fear Mr. McCain’s plan would jeopardize employer-based coverage without providing an adequate substitute. At a time when so many employers are reducing or dropping coverage, that is not a risk that the country can afford to take. The $5,000 tax credit would not go far for coverage for families that now have to spend $12,000 for barely adequate coverage.

Today President Bush showed up at the Republican National Committee headquarters to campaign for McCain. I wonder how McCain really felt about that since Obama says McCain voted with the president 90% of the time and that has been a very strong argument for Obama and his call for change.


Dogwalkmusings said...

It will be nail biting time well into next Tuesday night - and beyond if there are challenges!

Margie's Musings said...

I know. Well, we just have to wait and see.

The Cunning Runt said...

If I here John McCain, I don't think I'd like that very much.

My biggest concern is that "close" elections are stealable, and I do believe that's being worked on.

We need big, BIG numbers to feel confident.

Margie's Musings said...

That's true.

Sansego said...

People are too worried.

I honestly think the Republicans are too scared to pull off another 2000 because back then, the economy was great and people focused on shallow issues and Nader was telling people that there wasn't a dime's bit of difference between Gore and Bush.

Now, Americans are angry, all the numbers on the economy are negative, people are tired of scandals in the Republican party, Bush's approval ratings haven't seen 40% since before Katrina hit, McCain was hated by his own party for most of his career (and now liberals and independents don't like him because he's not the same person he was in 2000).

After looking at all the data, I really believe that if there is any hint of Republican attempts to steal the vote or even the scenario where Obama wins the popular vote by a huge margin while getting only 268 electoral votes...Americans won't be as complacent this time as they were in 2000. I can see rioting, unrest, and a country at war with itself.

After the past two years of Obama making his case and seeing what a smooth campaign he has run, then seeing the disarray in the McCain campaign with all the backbiting and betrayals, I don't think America will tolerate a McCain presidency. If he wins by fraud, theft, or the electoral college vote (while losing the popular vote), our country is screwed for the next four years. There's no way liberals and Democrats will tolerate another 2000.

If Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college vote, Republicans will have no right to complain because that's how Bush came into office. So, they can just accept an Obama administration and it will be karmic retribution.

Of course, the scenario I prefer is one where Obama wins 75 million votes to McCain's 55 million and 400 electoral votes to McCain's 135, and Democrats winning a 60-seat Senate. It will be "laissez les bontemps roulet!"

Judy said...

I just hope Florida gets their votes in and we don't have to spend days trying to figure out who they voted for again! I will be glad when it is over. Not long now.