Friday, October 5, 2012

Friday's Busy Schedule

I leave at 6:30 to go to Independence to get my hair done at 7:00 and then on to Bartlesville for my 8:50 appointment with Dr. Eslicker, the dermatologist. After that, I will go out to the mall to meet Myra for lunch. If I have time, I will drop my glasses off at Caney on the way and have a new right lens put in. It will be tight and I'm not sure they are even open on Fridays. I have left Bob the leftover lunch from yesterday so he will have lunch today. I would have taken him too but Myra issued the invitation. She didn't mention bringing him. But at least he will have lunch.

I was listening to NPR this morning and they said the pundits expected the president's numbers to go down after the debate but instead they have continued to rise. It may be a bit fruitless to spend too much time worrying about the Thursday afternoon forecast when Wednesday night’s debate had the potential to change the election landscape. But for the sake of continuity, here goes.

The forecast had Mr. Obama gaining slightly on Thursday, estimating that he had a 86.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 — up from 84.7 percent in Tuesday’s forecast.

This came despite the fact that it appeared there actually had been a modest shift back toward Mitt Romney in the polls even before the debate. In our “now-cast” — an estimate of what would happen if an election were held immediately — Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote had fallen by about one percentage point between Sunday and Wednesday.

Our Nov. 6 forecast, however, had already anticipated some decline for Mr. Obama, and so has been less sensitive to the shift.

In addition, there is a particular Electoral College outlook that is becoming problematic for Mr. Romney. As of Wednesday, the Nov. 6 forecast had Mr. Obama winning the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points. However, his advantage was larger than that — at least 4.9 percentage points, in 22 states (and the District of Columbia) — totaling 275 electoral votes:

I hope the rest of the polls show the same thing. Romney scares me. I wonder what he thinks the role of government really is. He says he wants to give the states the medicaid money to administer. Some southern states consider people with $700 a month ineligible. If states can make those decisions, the really poor people will suffer. Alabama, for example, counts anyone with a family of four ineligible if they have $18,500 annual income. My income, living alone and without my part time job with SER, would be $14,376 and I have a small savings. My problem is my age. Everywhere I have applied, I am sure, sees me as an old woman who might die anytime. I am nearly 77 after all, but in perfect health. They don't know that though. Everyone I know, over 60, has the same problem.

Three fourths of the medicaid money goes to pay for elders in nursing homes and the disabled and blind. Most people don't even know that.

What the poor really need is job training so they can find jobs. I know the frustrations of trying to find a job. As well qualified as I am for a number of jobs, I am working for a government program that has me working 16 hours a week for minimum wage. Romney would probably eliminate the program. It is funded through the department of labor.

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