Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Wednesday and Fact Checking Trump Speech

I think I will go to exercises again this morning. I slept well last night.

I went out to see the total eclipse of the moon and saw that but did not see the red moon. There were too many trees in the way. But it looked like this on one of my Hawaiian blog follower's blogs. 

 

I watched most of the Trump speech last night and then I checked fact check. Most of what he said was "more of the same"...nonsense.

Here is what they found:

The visa lottery "randomly hands out green cards without any regard for skill, merit, or the safety of our people."
We rated this claim False. While lottery applicants are randomly selected, they must meet education and work experience requirements. They must also be vetted by the United States government before being allowed to come to the United States.

President Donald Trump repeated in his State of the Union address one of his most frequent talking points — and one that has been repeatedly debunked.

"We enacted the biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history," Trump said in his address.

Measuring the size of the tax cut is a straightforward task. And as we noted the last time we fact-checked a similar claim, the tax bill passed last December doesn’t stack up as the largest cut ever.
On the eve of its passage, the Joint Committee on Taxation — Congress’s nonpartisan arbiter of tax analysis — said the tax bill would cost about $1.5 trillion over 10 years, or about $150 billion a year.

How does that compare historically?

The Treasury Department has published a list of the biggest tax bills between 1940 and 2012, measured not only by contemporary dollars but also by inflation-adjusted dollars and as a percentage of gross domestic product (a measure of the size of the overall economy).

Depending on what projection of the current bill you use and what yardstick you measure it by, several bills since 1980 were larger. Here’s the list by inflation-adjusted dollars:
Tax bill Inflation-adjusted dollars (per year)
American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (enacted in 2013) $321 billion
Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 $210 billion
Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 $208 billion
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 $150 billion
By this measurement, the recent tax bill ranks as the fourth-biggest since 1940.
The Trump-signed legislation falls lower on the list when the cuts are ordered from highest to lowest as a percentage of GDP:


Trump wrongly said wages are "finally" rising
Trump said during the speech, "After years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages." Wages are rising, but they've been rising for awhile. We rated his statement Mostly False.


"We are now, very proudly, an exporter of energy to the world."  
Donald Trump on Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 in the 2018 State of the Union address

Donald Trump exaggerates energy exports

President Donald Trump put himself on the side of average Americans in his effort to reduce government regulations, particularly on energy.

"We have ended the war on American Energy and we have ended the war on beautiful clean coal," Trump said. "We are now, very proudly, an exporter of energy to the world."

There are different ways to understand the claim that America is "now ... an exporter of energy."
One way to read Trump’s statement is that the United States only recently began to export energy.

 This is flat wrong.

"We have been exporting coal, natural gas, electricity, refined products and energy technologies for a very long time," Paul Sullivan, a professor at National Defense University, told us in August. "Liquefied natural gas exports from Alaska to Japan have been around for a long time."

Trump might have meant that the United States had only recently become a net exporter of energy — meaning the total of all U.S. energy exports recently overtook the total of all U.S. energy imports. That’s also inaccurate.

"This has been falling, but we are still a huge net energy importer," Jason Bordoff, who directs Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told us.

In its most recent projections, the federal Energy Information Administration concluded that the United States would become a net energy exporter around 2026, depending on the course of future patterns of global supply, demand and pricing.

The United States has been a net coal exporter for many years. It has been a net exporter of refined petroleum products since around 2011. So neither of those would make Trump correct.

Natural gas has done better. In the Energy Information Administration's January 2018 shorter-term energy outlook, it reported that "in 2017, the United States was a net exporter of natural gas for the first time on an annual basis since 1957."

We reached out to the White House and did not hear back.

Our ruling
Trump said, "We are now, very proudly, an exporter of energy to the world."

The United States has been exporting different forms of energy for many years. It has been a net exporter of coal and refined petroleum products, a fact that predates Trump. The one new development is natural gas. For the first time since 1957, the United States became a net exporter in 2017.

Overall though, it is a net energy importer, a situation that’s not expected to change until midway through the next decade.

Back to my life: 
We will eat the rest of our beans and cornbread today for lunch. Bob is supposed to bring me his cornbread mix this morning. If he forgets again, I will just buy another mix.  I have to get milk anyhow.

We are to do cakes again next week but I will be gone to Kansas City for my doctor's appointment so I will bake my cake on Sunday and send it over to Bob's to be frozen. I have no room in my freezer. Karan and Phyllis will need to send Bob a text or call him when they are ready to bring theirs over. He will come to my apartment to be here when they bring their their cakes over. Then Tuesday, I will take them to the First Christian Church in Independence when I go up there on Tuesday to get my hair done.

More later...

We ate the last of our bean and cornbread today. It was still very good.

I went to the car wash and ran my car through. Then when I got home, I took my sweeper out and vacuumed it all out. It looks much better. It won't last long because it sets under a car port. But for the time being, it looks nice.

I took Missy out for awhile too. It s 62 degrees this afternoon and is forecast to get cold again very soon.  She loved it. She laid in the dry grass in the sunshine and stayed out 45 minutes. I feel sorry for her in the winter. She loves the other seasons and she gets to go out a lot more. She used to be an outdoor/indoor cat when I lived on Catalina in my own home. I would go out at 5:00 and call her and she would come running. I could see the little speck running from two blocks away. She came right in for the evening and night but she had the run of the neighborhood otherwise. When we moved here in the apartment, we discovered there were many stray cats around here that would attack her. She spent 10 days in the hospital right after I moved in. I gave her antibiotic shots  twice a day for another week after she got home. She can no longer hold her own since she is nearly15 years old..Poor old thing!

More later...

I notice the movie I have been waiting for is on at the Bartlesville, Oklahoma Theater this Saturday at 2:00.It is "The Darkest Hour"  I asked Bob if he would like to go and he said "probably" I suggested we eat at Dink's Bar B Q this time and he said that sounded good.

I am so happy to finally get to see it.


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

No Sex, Blood, and historically correct as far as I can tell. VERY VERY interesting to see their perspective. I was angry that the US didn't answer his call for help at the most critical point that could of saved millions of lives (including jewish pop). We seem to get involved only when it is in our best interest or we are hit over the head with bloody facts! BUT it was very good and comical in most places due to Churchills personality.

Margie's Musings said...

Good! I am looking forward to seeing it. Bob wants to go too. I don't know whether Joanne will want to see it or not.